Incumbent Alassane Ouattara is the overwhelming favourite to secure a fourth term as Ivory Coast holds presidential polls Saturday, a task facilitated by the absence of several key opposition figures.
Ouattara, 83, has wielded power in the world’s top cocoa producer since 2011, when the country began reasserting itself as a west African economic powerhouse.
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“We want a knockout blow,” chorus his allies as they target a decisive win in the first round and avoid a run-off.
The road back to the presidential palace seems clear, with former presidential rival Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam both barred from standing.
The constitutional council did greenlight four opposition candidates but eliminated Gbagbo and Thiam on the grounds they have been removed from the electoral roll.
Thiam fell afoul of nationality-related legal issues stemming from him acquiring French citizenship and Gbagbo was excluded for a criminal conviction.
On Wednesday, Gbagbo slammed the upcoming poll as a “civilian coup d’etat” and “electoral robbery”.
Speaking to Panafrican outlet AFO Media, Gbagbo said that he supported those who “demonstrate against this electoral robbery”.
The enforced absence of such well-known opposition figures has only added to a tense political climate, which has seen four people, including one policeman, die in sporadic unrest in recent days.
One man died Tuesday while helping law enforcement dismantle barricades near the county’s administrative capital, Yamoussoukro, an opposition stronghold which has seen some blockades, as tensions simmer with the election looming ever nearer.
Monday saw an independent electoral commission building torched.
Authorities have banned their rallies and meetings, citing a risk to public safety.
– Banned rallies –
Some 44,000 security forces have been deployed nationwide have sought to keep protests in check, especially in former opposition fiefdoms in the south and west.
Recent weeks have seen more than 700 people arrested, some for acts of “terrorism”, according to state prosecutor Oumar Braman Kone, with around 30 three-year prison sentences for disturbing public order handed down.
Authorities say they do not want to permit “chaos” to arise nor see a repeat of the unrest of 2020, when 85 people died during that election.
“The state is taking preventive security measures to avoid electoral violence. But the best way to have peaceful polls is to organise inclusive elections,” said political analyst Geoffroy Kouao.
– Four candidates –
None of the four candidates who will seek to unseat Ouattara represents an established party nor do they have the logistical means at their disposal on anything like the scale of the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP).
Former trade minister Jean-Louis Billon, 60, is out to helm a “new generation” of Ivorian politicians as the agribusinessman looks to rally voices from his former stable the Democratic Party.
Former first lady Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, 76, is for her part looking to garner support from supporters of her former husband.
But the left goes into the contest fending off divisions given the presence of civil engineer and independent Pan-African, Ahoua Don Mello, who does not conceal his Russian sympathies.
Then there is centrist Henriette Lagou, a moderate who also stood in 2015 — taking less than one percent.
Ouattara came to power in the throes of a bloody crisis following the 2010-2011 contest which would cost more than 3,000 lives in clashes between his supporters and those of Gbagbo, who ruled for a decade.
Turnout will be a crucial issue Saturday with some nine million voters called to cast their ballots.
In the north, where most people are of the Malinke ethnicity strongly backing Ouattara, his RHDP will be hoping to rack up scores of 90 percent and more on the back of a strong participation rate.
Southern and western regions, home to ethnic groups historically pro-PDCI or pro-Gbagbo, could avoid the polls owing to a lack of voting instructions from their leaders.
“Nothing will make me vote, my candidate isn’t on the list and none of them represents my ideas,” complained Emile Kouadio, in Yopougon, an Abidjan district which remains overwhelmingly pro-Gbagbo.
“The absence of the two main (banned) opponents will demobilise a significant portion of the electorate, and so far we haven’t seen a significant shift behind a candidate,” said William Assanvo, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
The government is highlighting a record showing several years of strong economic growth in a country with rich mineral resources, which became an oil and gas producer in the 2020s, as well as a security situation largely under control, despite jihadist threats on its borders with Burkina Faso and Mali.
Critics deplore the fact that the undisputed growth has only benefited a small portion of the population and has accompanied a spiralling cost of living.
Meanwhile, the hoped for post 2010-2011 national reconciliation is still not wholly achieved.
AFP