Rich in gold and arable land, Sudan is at risk of partition, after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces cemented its control of the vast Darfur region last month.
In neighbouring Kordofan, fighters are still jostling for control, while millions face starvation in the world’s largest hunger and displacement crisis.
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A peace deal would be, by Trump’s count, the ninth the president has brokered, but in Sudan there are also numerous outside countries to contend with.
Calls from the United Nations to abide by an arms embargo have gone unheeded, and efforts to open humanitarian corridors to besieged civilians have repeatedly failed.
These are the main actors driving the conflict:
– Sudan’s warring generals –
Sudan’s de facto leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan heads the army while the RSF is commanded by his former ally and deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, commonly known as Hemeti.
In October 2021, a coup led by Burhan with Daglo’s support overthrew a brief moment of civilian government that followed the overthrow of longtime president Omar al-Bashir in 2019.
A long-simmering power struggle between the two generals erupted into all-out war on April 15, 2023.
Their forces have since killed tens of thousands of people, displaced nearly 12 million and plunged the country into a major humanitarian crisis.
The RSF are descended from the Janjaweed militias, who, starting in 2003, committed mass ethnically targeted atrocities on the government’s behalf in Darfur.
They are now accused of committing similar atrocities in the region.
The government, allied with the army which has also been accused of war crimes, has its wartime capital in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan.
The RSF has formed a rival parallel administration in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur, which has received no international recognition.
– Mediators in each corner –
SAUDI ARABIA:
It was Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman who convinced Trump to take a personal interest in Sudan, with the US president saying this week that before the conflict “was not on my charts to be involved in”.
Though Riyadh has nominally supported the Sudanese military since Bashir’s ousting, it has kept to a mediating role, hosting several rounds of talks in an effort to regain stability across its Red Sea shore.
Saudi Arabia is part of the so-called Quad, which has intensified peace efforts in recent months. It also includes the United States, and two key Washington allies seen to wield the most influence over the two warring sides: Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
EGYPT:
Sudan’s neighbour to the north and former colonial power has been the army’s strongest supporter. Cairo considers Burhan the country’s legitimate leader, and its only dependable partner across its southern border, with whom it shares key interests including Nile water security.
The RSF has accused Egypt of providing direct military support to the Sudanese army, including by conducting air strikes, which Cairo has denied.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES:
Abu Dhabi has fielded widespread accusations that it is backing the RSF with weapons, fuel and mercenaries sent via Chad, Libya, Kenya or Somalia.
It has issued repeated denials, despite reports from UN experts, diplomats, US lawmakers and international organisations.
The Gulf country’s stake in the war includes vast economic investment, including gold and agricultural land, regional geopolitical interests and countering the influence of Saudi Arabia and Islamists within Burhan’s camp.
Analysts say the UAE has leveraged its influence with Sudan’s neighbours to bolster the RSF’s legitimacy and funnel support across Sudan’s many borders.
– African neighbours –
LIBYA:
Eastern Libya strongman Khalifa Haftar has been accused of supplying weapons and fuel to the RSF on behalf of the UAE.
In June, the Sudanese army accused forces loyal to Haftar of helping the RSF capture a strategic border area with Egypt and Libya.
US-based watchdog The Sentry said in a recent report that Haftar “has been a key fuel supplier to the RSF” throughout the war, because of his “deep loyalty to the Emirati government”.
CHAD:
Chad, which shares a porous 1,300-kilometre border with Sudan, hosts more Sudanese refugees than any other country.
The Sudanese army has accused Chad of serving as a crucial supply line for the RSF on behalf of Abu Dhabi, allegations that UN experts have deemed credible.
KENYA:
In June, Sudan’s government said Kenyan-labelled weapons and ammunition were found in RSF caches in Khartoum.
It accused Nairobi of acting as a transit point for military equipment supplied by the UAE, in addition to hosting RSF leaders for political events.
– Further afield –
IRAN:
Khartoum and Tehran restored diplomatic relations in October 2023 after a years-long rift. The following year, Iran reportedly supplied drones to the Sudanese army that proved integral to their counteroffensive to recapture central Sudan and the capital Khartoum this year.
The reports have previously drawn US concerns.
TURKEY:
A major rival of the UAE, Turkey expressed its support for the Sudanese army from the outset of the war and, according to several media outlets including The Washington Post, provided drones used to strike RSF positions.
AFP